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Ghostzapper Upgrade?

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tamure View Drop Down
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  Quote tamure Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Ghostzapper Upgrade?
    Posted: 25 Aug 2015 at 6:20pm
Just took a look at the upgrade and downgrade list for 2015 (I know I'm almost a year late!) and realized that Ghostzapper was upgraded. Really? This is a guy that was brilliant as a racehorse but has been a complete flop as a sire. Just looking at his numbers both on the track and in the sales ring and I can't see where the upgrade came from. His fee started at an egregious $200K and is now down to $60K (which is still way too high). Added to that, he was given one of the best book of mares around and managed to drag his mares down significantly. Adena is now desperately trying to keep him relevant by making his foals available for the Ontario bred program where the competition is not as fierce (Shaman Ghost). Five Grade 1 winners in 9 crops of racing: Moreno, Judy the Beauty, Stately Victor, Better Lucky and Molly Morgan.
Now go take a look at his half brother City Zip who stands for $40K and for years had a book of so so mares. He had four Grade 1 winners in 2014 alone (Palace, Personal Diary, Work All Week and Dayatthespa) and should continue to get stronger now that his book is starting to get better.
How about War Front who has twice as many Grade 1 winners as Ghostzapper with one less crop of runners.
There are far better sires who deserved an upgrade before Ghostzapper. Let's face it, he is far from elite. In fact he is going in the wrong direction.
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  Quote spinround Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2015 at 7:57pm
I disagree completely. Ghostzapper has been a solid sire in recent years. He is currently ranked #12 on the US Sire List, the same position where he finished last season. That position is/was higher than many luminaries including Street Cry and Distorted Humor. He was not stellar straight out of the box but his current AEI / CI ratio is 2.33 to 2.18 which is hardly dragging his mares down significantly. In terms of moving in the wrong direction, six of his seven (yes you missed two) G1 winners are six years old or younger, reinforcing the idea that his runners are not particularly precocious.

Regarding an upgrade that is pretty subjective. GZ was highly rated when he first entered the game but was downgraded once (maybe twice?) once his progeny started racing. How much was he downgraded and how much was he upgraded? I doubt he will be as high as he once was but he won't be as low as he was recently either. It is a balancing act and I think a move up a tick was the right one.

As for City Zip I think he should have been better in the game for a long time. and I'm glad he finally got an upgrade.

War Front was upgraded for 2013 and 2014. He's a better sire than GZ IRL but hey GZ's stud fee is $60k and War Front is $150k. What more do you want?    
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2015 at 8:42pm
It is interesting to compare Ghostzapper and War Front and a study of the statistics show that both merited their upgrades. In fact they are almost dead even.

Thru 2015 War Front has had 6 crops with an AEI of 2.40 which is #2 in NA behind only Pioneerof the Nile. He has 38 SW which is 10% of his 382 foals. 22 GW is 6% and 11 G1 winners which is 3%.

Ghostzapper has had 7 crops with an AEI of 2.34 which ranks #3 in NA. He has 43 SW of his 505 foals which is 9%. 25 GW which is 5% and 8 G1 winners which is 2%.

So War Front is slightly better, but not by much and considering his stud fee is 90K more I am not sure you are getting a lot of value there in terms of racing. Of course in sales average War Front smokes GZ with an average of 369K to 80K.

GZ put up such staggering numbers on the race track that maybe he is a disappointment in that he hasn't produced monster horses but he is certainly doing a solid job at stud and deserved his slight upgrade.
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  Quote ladofmanor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2015 at 8:46pm
It is always tough when dealing with stats as we can all manipulate them to highlight a sire positively or negatively. Mike takes many factors into consideration when adjusting sires and some of these factors are 'sim specific' and not purely and solely based on RL.

If we all chose one sire to look at I am 100% sure that we could build a case for that sire to be bumped up in someway based on his RL stats.

GZ was "notably downgraded" in 2010 and I cannot find any other mentions in either direction on my data sheets. A lot of sires are adjusted each year without notification as Mike usually just notes significant changes however many are adjusted. GZ may have had multiple downgrades and his latest upgrade may have accounted for this.

Just a few ramblings but something for you to consider.... Now fastnet Rock on the other hand..........LOL 
2011 HOTY MISS TIMOSHENKO

G1: MIDDLE NAME DANGER/FREEZE/ZABEEL WARRIOR/USUAL SUSPECT/BESANKS CHOICE/SWITCH IT UP/DOUBLE DISSOLUTION/START SHAKING
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  Quote ladofmanor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2015 at 11:45pm
Aha! Have found my list of upgrade / downgrade from 2008 onward.

GZ - down 2010, down 2011, UP 2015

Cannot find a note on Ghostzapper on his inception but these are his movements (from notable mentions of Mike's)

Lado
2011 HOTY MISS TIMOSHENKO

G1: MIDDLE NAME DANGER/FREEZE/ZABEEL WARRIOR/USUAL SUSPECT/BESANKS CHOICE/SWITCH IT UP/DOUBLE DISSOLUTION/START SHAKING
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  Quote colonelber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2015 at 10:24am
Originally posted by tamure

Just took a look at the upgrade and downgrade list for 2015 (I know I'm almost a year late!)


Where can I find this list? Thanks in advance
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  Quote mtk76 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Aug 2015 at 10:45am
Based on Lado's notes I think Mike has nailed Ghostzapper spot on..
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  Quote iant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2015 at 10:35am
If based on statistics the last couple of years have been good for Ghostzapper. So the upgrade makes logical sense. 10%+ BTH 4%+ GSH this year is really good.

When you compare him to War Front you have a major problem, look at stud fees of actual runners and we have a totally different view. This is War Front's first year with runners of his big fees with 15%+ BTH 10%+ GSH, crushes Ghostzapper but shows in general how important mare quality is. War Front has 3 grade 1 winners this year and is the leading sire NH of grade 1 black type horses expressed as a percentage of runners. The only other two living sires to top a stakes horse list by numbers or percentages are Galileo and Dubawi who are way clear of the other sires out there.
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  Quote beisbol Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2015 at 12:43pm
What I'd like to know is... why the spike in Ghostzapper success? Isn't that weird?

Anyone know if they "figured out" how to breed to him, whether by conformation or pedigree? Seem like those things usually get parsed out in the first 5 crops or so... Ghosty entered stud in 2006.

I still prefer City Zip
Horses who win races and stuff.
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  Quote iant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Aug 2015 at 5:04am
They on paper seem very slow to mature His best runner this year was a 2009 foal his second highest dirt scorer was a 2010 foal. That is not a great advert in the world of quick returns. It also puts those in his early good mare crops. Will he fall off as the poorer mares progeny flow through the system?
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